January 30, 2008

Prosper and Adventure Training Concepts

If you're going to rip people off, you should at least have the courtesy to disappear.

Edited: Brian Jones, CEO of Adventure Training Concepts, may be having some tough financial times which caused him to default on a prosper loan. But he's man enough to face things immediately when confronted. I've changed my opinion to legitimate default and genuinely wish him the best of luck going forward.

Prosper was/is a great idea, but turned out to be unbelievably poorly executed. Their idea of due diligence on borrowers was completely pathetic. They are plagued with massive fraud and unpaid loans. And an occasional loan that appeared low-risk, yet cratered after 4 months. The loan defaulted and eventually sold for about 8 cents on the dollar. Definitely something to consider if you're thinking about doing business.

Considering the other loan I have which is about to default, I'm break even on prosper (15-20 loans). Pretty interesting lessons learned for the opportunity cost of parking $1K for two years. There's a great community at prospers.org.  The company has proven itself both incompetent and completely unable to regain the confidence of lenders, almost all of whom have been burnt badly (even senior prosper employees).

The best part is the information is public with open APIs. So there's lots of third party sites that help you look at your portfolio or that can calculate just how ripped off most lenders have been over the last 3 years.

I feel really bad for many lenders who are in for 100K+ and are taking huge losses. I learned a lot for my minimal investment -- just hope I get the rest of my money back at this point.

January 09, 2008

Auto Glass Repair

The story is yet to be posted....but I needed two side windows replaced on my car today (based in Bristol, RI).

Bristol Glass came through for me. $290, same day service (though I needed to go 20 miles to Attleboro and spend a couple hours at a dunkin donuts with dysfunctional wifi). They are a full service glass shop and I'll probably be sending over some glass shelves for a piece of furniture to be cut soon. As a bonus, they did an outstanding job cleaning the broken glass which I considered out of scope for the quote.

Diamond Triumph Glass was $485, next day at their facility in Cranston. Very difficult to explain which windows to the likely foreign-based phone agent. I was surprised since they had replaced a windshield last year for $175, the lowest price of several quotes, and did a great job.

JN Phillips was $550, two days later in my driveway.

Two others didn't answer the phone quickly enough.

Since my deductible was $500....my problem. Auto glass is something you can shop pretty hard and pretty quickly. Most normal mechanics can't do it anywhere as cheaply and quickly as specialists.

January 06, 2008

The Last Horizon

For holiday vacation this year, I went to Bermuda and stayed at Horizons, as I have done every year since 1996 (except 1999 when deployed to the Middle East).

Horizons closed this week permanently, slated for redevelopment with a neighboring property, the Coral Beach Club. Redevelopment is long overdue. The rumor is that it will become a Four Seasons (the rumor status appears to come from Four Seasons policy to ensure standards are met prior to agreeing to use the FS name).

What I won't miss: the tennis courts amazing state of disrepair, the erratic lunch service, opaque billing, unresponsive management (they even ran out of tennis balls).

What I will miss: the loyal, amazing, and long-serving staff, an outstanding multi-course dinner from a unique menu every night, the community of people who visited every year at the same time, clotted cream at afternoon tea, the ability to play par 3 golf on a walk-on basis starting and ending on any vacant hole, the cottage format with public spaces and balconies and breakfast served in cottage (we miss you Blanche).

I grew up going somewhere different every year and every vacation. Except the beach, because we got a really good deal from my aunt. But only because of the deal. We went all sorts of places, but nowhere twice. Every hotel, every attraction was always new. I'd sit in the backseat reading the AAA guide. Some detours (Canyon de Chelly) were amazing, some less than that. My father could never understand why someone would go on vacation every year to the same place for almost 25 years. Why not try Jamaica? or the Bahamas? or....

I now understand. For all the faults and flaws of Horizon's management, they were always outweighed by a community of people. To have true friends at the bar that you look forward to seeing again the first night of every trip. If you can successfully incorporate community into a business model, it will carry a business over many hurdles.

How to leverage the modern toolset to bolt community on existing or planned destinations? Not clear. Though the opportunity appears massive.

September 20, 2007

Honorable Discharge

I received my honorable discharge from the Navy Reserves last week, making me a full civilian for the first time since 1992.

Too much uncertainty on recalls. Too much bureaucracy and paperwork rather than productive work (even after being made good, not being paid for 4 months annoys). Great people at every level. They need to change the catastrophic consequences of not being selected for O5 (=not able to retire which is effectively half of your reserve pay). Forcing senior officers to travel long distances for billets (and thus spend their paycheck on plane fare) does little to motivate junior officers. Once my chances at O5 began to diminish due to leaves of absence and IRR there was little incentive to try to regain the path.

It is clear that fundamental changes to the Navy Reserves are overdue. The nation is not getting its moneys worth.

Centralized, public job assignment is a good start. ZBR helped focus on key missions. The next key step is either automating musters, berthing, medical, orders, etc. in a reliable, authoritative system or having units drill together on the weekend. The administrative burden of trying to align drills with customers who work during the week and Reserve systems which assume that units are regularly assembled on weekends is incredibly frustrating. 

The people are great and committed. They deserve a Reserve system that is worthy of their service and sacrifice.

August 24, 2007

The Subprime Crisis

My first thought is that the system worked.

The system where hedge funds and certain other things (like toxic waste CDOs) are limited to high net-worth individuals and institutions. For all the market problems, normal investors haven't been affected (unlike people who need mortgages).

It is unbelievable that hedge funds (and European banks) put their futures on things they couldn't really measure or understand. This should put the nail into much of the quant model. Instead of minting money, they're actually collecting insurance, collecting pennies on an annuity basis until every couple years the market collects dollars.

While the jumbo mortgage market has melted down, the normal people mortgage market appears to be going strong.

I do feel sad about the people who were counting on refinancing their ARM and now have that option closed. I am pretty surprised they didn't understand the terms of the loans and the risks they were taking up front.

I did. 4 years ago I was a perfect buyer for a 5 year ARM. My reset will be financially painful but survivable. I made a conscious financial decision which turned out to be a loss. Given the same situation (without knowing the future) I would make the same decision. Plenty of real estate investors took a financial risk and lost big. Hopefully they (like me) had this as part of a diversified financial portfolio.

I'm leaning towards mandatory financial education. Especially for people who can't come up with a "normal" down payment. A no down payment ARM really should be limited to knowledgable investors. Or at least someone who has had to go through an hour or two of basic finance and potential scenarios.

The biggest surprise is that savvy investors haven't jumped into the jumbo resale market. Or subprime/Alt-A with reasonable (20%+) downpayments. If there was a way to participate as an individual investor, I'd be all over it. This should be a down payment crisis, not a general availability crisis.

And for people who have relationships with credit unions or small banks (that hold mortgages and know local areas) the window is still open. The whole brokerage system of national lenders is great until it falls apart.

June 06, 2007

Core 2 Duo and Media PCs

My new Media PC is great. Except it skips on recordings. Watching recorded programs in stop-motion animation is pretty bad.

The main reason appears to be processor power. With up to 4 simultaneous recordings (2 HD, 2 standard) this isn't completely unreasonable. The problem is that power maxes out at 50% because much of Windows/Media Center/Tuner drivers appear to only use one core. Which is definitely not something I thought of when purchasing my processor. I'm actually considering getting a cheap one-core processor to see if I get better performance.

During research though, I found the E4300 to be eminently overclockable. Even in my less than ideal Shuttle PC I got 10% easy already with more yet to come. Hopefully that will be enough to solve my problem until Microsoft/Hauppauge catch up.

How come there aren't any utilities to help analyze recorded files (post or during recording) for problems like this? Sounds like a moneymaker.

Subtle change to USPS Rules

A year or two ago, mail carriers started refusing packages without a pickup slip (they initial it and put it in your mailbox as a receipt). Easy enough to crank out in 2-3 minutes onine. Why? My carrier said because of theft (my response was I doubted anyone was going to risk their job and pension over a $20 amazon return).

With the latest increase in postal rates, carrier pickup is only allowed for priority or express mail packages. So media or parcel returns you're out of luck. My carrier picked the last package up anyway. Good luck stuffing these into the big blue mailboxes.

One reason I ship almost everything UPS is that if I need a pickup I don't pay -- I just order something using Amazon prime (a $10 book or CD I was probably going to get soon anyway) and they pick up in two days.

Time and gas are too valuable to be running around on routine packages.

Ethernet over Powerline

If you're considering it, don't. Or at least know there's a 50/50 chance of returning it. Pretty compact house -- dismal signal one room away.  Ended up hardwiring CAT5 -- which is what I should have done all along. Second house in a row that I broke down in the end (though actually G with a newer laptop with integrated antenna would have solved the problem in house #1). The open-source Linksys replacement firmwares really help with signal with the ability to max out power.

Its somewhat amazing that I have three things under my TV with ethernet (PS2, Tivo, Media PC).

June 02, 2007

Job Tips

This is a list of tips for job searchers in high-tech fields I compiled based on my experiences working for a major employer in New England. I've seen a lot of people come in through the door in the past couple of years.

1) Get on Monster.com. Brutally reject companies/situations you're not interested in. If you like the company, but are dubious about the job check it out. Many respectable large companies use Monster far more than is appropriate. Make sure your buzzwords are appropriately called out in the resume -- don't get too technical or it may not pass the initial HR screen. Don't go overboard or you'll be tortured on the interview.

2) Craigslist. For my fellow Harvard alums, harvard-jobs and harvard-startups mailing lists. Spotty but sometimes gold.

3) Informal groups like Bar Camp, Pito Salas' occasional geek meetups, Providence Geeks meetings at AS220, Brown Forum for Entrepreneurs.

4) Temp-to-perm rarely works for big companies (but is great for others). Many big companies specifically prohibit permanent contractors or temp conversions for legal reasons. Temp benefits will always suck and rarely get better. Understand this up front.

5) Apply directly to jobs in the right field at large companies. They are probably using the recruiter who will fill the job you want. They may drop hints about other jobs to apply for. If someone you've talked to previously tells you about an opening, they may be indirectly trying to tell you to apply (see #6).

6) However annoying it is, apply to each position separately at large companies. They are moving to highly legalistic processes to prove sufficient applicants were considered and that applicants weren't informally screened out using discriminatory practices. We can't even accept resumes at job fairs anymore -- all we can do is hand out business cards and ask people to go online. This is having a devastating affect on recruit quality.

7) Stay away from major companies with weak financials. Even if they are hiring, the process will be slow and painful. And then you might get laid off.  On second thought, apply but don't hold your breath.

8) You can't fight the tide. The market has gone from gangbusters to tight to approaching gangbusters at the beginning of this year (those who didn't prepare for their 2007 hires got burnt). When times are tight, be happy at the job you have -- the entire process turns slow, crowded, and painful.

9) Look at major venture capital websites in the area. Find who they've funded. Haunt the funded company websites and try to network through #3. You'll meet prefunding high-risk people in the bunches through #3. Might find the perfect opportunity, but hard to be patient if you're unemployed. Better to stick with funded if you have no job.

10) Check specialty job boards. Like joelonsoftware.com or a specific new field you're good at. Once everyone finds them, they're useless. But in the beginning, there can be some spectacular finds. They're looking for a mindset and a community outside the norm, not the riffraff from craiglist or monster. Play the card if you fit.

11) Either hop immediately if its a bad job (and neglect on resume or straight up explain as bad fit) or wait it out 18-24 months.

12) Figure out a way for people to contact you. I recommend a prepaid cellphone. I've got a Virgin Mobile one in a desk drawer that I can activate for $10 in 10 minutes. I have seen some great potentials get dropped cold after too many conversations with a stay-at-home spouse while trying to connect to Ms. Right. Doing screening interviews in the parking lot isn't pretty, but it works. Though check reception first.

13) If you are off the market, pull your resume from Monster, etc. We are unlikely to try again when you're back on. Off the market means not returning emails/phone calls quickly and in a professional manner. A quick professional no is always understood.

14) If you are in the slightest doubt, do not quit your current job until after you have passed the drug test. If you are going for a job requiring a security clearance, talk to a friend about the process to see if you have any red flags that will hold things up (foreign spouse, extensive foreign travel, credit problems are a start). 75% of people can get an interim clearance in two weeks after computer background and credit checks are completed which is more than enough to get lots of real work done. Some people will take years for no discernable difference. It may be 2+ years before you're in the job you were hired for. Your new career will be much more likely to take off if you're part of the 75%. This warning does not apply to entry level (some delays are assumed in hiring).

15) Figure out if you're a big company or a small company person. Neither wants to hire the other type if possible. Do not mix the two resumes and get advice from someone knowledgable to rewrite your resume and retailor your interview if you're looking to switch. If you're a big company person, look up the top 5 or 10 employers in the area. Figure out which ones suck (work conditions, products, management, etc.). Watch the survivors' websites like a hawk. There are only a few actual choices for most big company people.

16) Make sure you get hired into the right group in large companies if career prospects are a major concern. There are some very tempting job writeups that are absolute dead ends. You want to be in big groups where you have a mainstream skill set. Army of one is great if you're happy to stay where you land.

April 17, 2007

Building a Media PC

I'm 95% done with my new Media PC.

I previously had used a Hauppauge MediaMVP with the custom SageTV firmware (pretty much reprograms it as a Sage terminal). Nice piece of hardware for $100 or so. Did the job. One problem was that it couldn't show streaming content for fairly obvious reasons. But great on downloaded or archived TV shows. The other problem was that the interface was a bit sluggish and strange things would happen like not being able to rewind. Technologically, its amazing it works at all. But just not a premium experience. The other problem is that the TV card in the Sage "host" computer is fairly low quality and the computer itself is not reliable enough for an always-on appliance. So it didn't replace the Tivo.

I built the Media PC from scratch. Shuttle case (very elegant and incredibly dense fit). Core Duo 4300. 1TB of HD.

Picture quality is great though I'm not thrilled by the resolution. Have to switch between "Zoom" aspect for watching TV and "Full" aspect for using the computer. The onboard card doesn't support custom resolutions. Probably off to buy a cheap card. Accidentally, didn't get the SPDIF interface for long-term sound (on order).

I was surprised that Vista doesn't support drive mirroring at the OS level. I was surprised how quickly it installed. I was surprised how quickly it reinstalled after I hit the "disappearing control panel" problem, rendering my system useless, within 5 hours. Apparently, there's a nasty interaction between some drivers and Vista that makes the control panel inaccessible. I'm not sure whether it was updated Hauppauge WinTVPVR drivers or Powerstrip, but I'm not touching either again.

I'm surprised that Media Center doesn't allow and automatically consolidate multiple data locations (since without mirroring, I now have 950GB of media space). You can have media in multiple locations, but you can only record to a single location. Doesn't seem like a hard problem. The Media Center interface isn't as good as the Tivo being replaced (hopefully), but its good enough. They were definitely too cute on their interface design.

The biggest surprise was that my new $30 DVD writer was much, much better than my 4-year-old $30 DVD reader at ripping CDs. Several "unrippable" CDs had clean reads. And it rips fast.