I'm an idealist. I believe in foreign aid, global free trade, et al. I even believe in idealism in war, in operations such as Somalia and Haiti, which at least had good intentions.
There is something very different between a strong country undertaking an idealistic military action and withdrawing under casualties and Israel's recent performance.
When the stakes are survival, you cannot mess around. Yet you cannot start wars without a clear and achievable result. Israel may have created a failed state next door which will leave Hezbollah as a dominant political power. The Lebanese Army will be easily coopted to serve the true military master of Lebanon. In fact, I would not be surprised to see Lebanese unit leaders swear allegiance to Hezbollah in a stunning PR move after Israel withdraws. While the government of Lebanon was weak, it was democratically elected. So instead of Hezbollah being kicked out in a year or two (as the Syrians just were), they now will likely end up in control of Lebanon.
Arab support for the US occupation of Iraq has been dealt a death blow. It has been conclusively demonstrated that the US acts in its own interests in the Middle East, not by a sense of what is right. It is hard to justify killing 50 innocents over 2 soldiers in any absolute measure of right and wrong. Even though turning South Lebanon into a parking lot was completely justified by the same calculus. Israel would have been much better off to accept a few more casualties and a few less targets struck as part of allowing an orderly civilian evacuation of South Lebanon.
America thought the war in Iraq was about attack -- they have struggled since it was actually about reconstruction.
Israel thought the war in Lebanon was about destroying Hezbollah and punishing Lebanon -- it was actually about demonstrating precision strike and targeting. When a third world country attacks civilian convoys and the UN it appears backward, stupid, or ignorant. When a first world country does the same, it appears callous and self-centered.
Hezbollah has gained thousands of recruits and will be twice as strong in twelve months time, in most scenarios I can envision. When planning war, you must consider all likely results, not those that align with your hopes and dreams. The second and third order political effects on Israel and the United States will be subtle but far-reaching in the next five years.
